Should startup focus on taking a direction based on gut feel or hard numbers

It is a dilemma and it is tricky where to start. In my experience most startups are venturing into something completely new and out of the ordinary (that said some startups may be modifying the value proposition when compared to existing players). When there are no benchmarks set or true measures to compare against or strive for, it becomes nearly impossible to have a yardstick.

It is like being in a thick forest, with a candle in hand, in a dark night with no way to make any sense of direction to get out of the forest. It is hard to know what you are measuring and what you are measuring against. Speed and direction are irrelevant if you do not have the context of where you are heading.

If you don’t know where you are going, any road will get you there.

Lewis Carroll

If you know there is a road up north and you can find north by looking at the stars, speed and direction suddenly become relevant.

Thus, while data is important, we have a situation where we need to rely on our gut and intuition more than usual. This is also a point where cross domain knowledge truly helps.

Steve Jobs audited a calligraphy class in college, which he later credited to be the inspiration for Apple’s beautiful typography.

As a startup the steps you can potentially take are to get out of this dilemma

(1) Take a step (any step) and ask yourself, are we going in the right direction? May not be a perfect move but still you have to pick a direction.

(2) Once we learn to nudge in the right direction, we then can think of moving faster if all seems ok, any direction may eventually take you out but fist glimpse of road will help you pick up speed and direction. If you see your path blocked or extremely difficult, you may consider changing it ( pivot). Only when you are sure of the direction, it makes perfect sense to pick up speed This is when measuring speed and direction (and data) becomes relevant. If you see others heading in the same direction you may consider running to catch the first bus (first mover advantage).

(3) But if you do not have anyone else to race against you have to ask yourself what is the optimal speed now? Is it faster than before? Or what is the optimal speed for our company today? You benchmark yourself against the previous moment, iteration or version of yourself You benchmark against You. You only need to benchmark your past self against now’s self. Once there is a sound basis to run and jump onto the fast bus ( or a rocket ship), you can feel confident of doing so. But you need the sound basis because you can’t run before you walk and you can’t walk before you nudge.

But, if you don’t know the way out, you gotta keep moving.

Wishing you the very best

© Sameer Babbar

Acknowledgement:

I was asked this question at TechStar startup Co-founder & CMO Rian Weber of SimBull.com. Do check his profile out and his super awesome startup. They are creating a new category which akin to stock trading is like taking a position in sports teams. I did give him a reply, as I was not recording the session he took notes of what I suggested and shared it back with me. I am very thankful for him for recording notes from our conversation .